Poroshenko faces hurdles despite big Ukraine vote win

October 28, 2014 | 09:28
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President Petro Poroshenko called the strong showing by moderates in Sunday's parliamentary election a sign that war-weary Ukrainians favour "those political forces that support the president's peace plan".


Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko casts his ballot in a polling station in Kiev on Oct 26, 2014, during Ukraine's parliamentary elections. (AFP/SERGEI SUPINSKY)

KIEV: Grad rockets roaring from the pro-Russian rebel bastion of Donetsk the day after Ukrainian voters backed President Petro Poroshenko's high-stake talks with Moscow underscored the deadly obstacles facing his search for peace in the separatist east.

A visibly-upbeat Poroshenko called the strong showing by moderates in Sunday's parliamentary election a sign that war-weary Ukrainians favour "those political forces that support the president's peace plan".

The Western-backed leader had reason to rejoice. Voters turned their backs on hawkish parties that demand a military triumph and oppose Poroshenko's offer of limited self-rule for the insurgents in return for an end to six months of bloodshed in which 3,700 have died.

The 49-year-old chocolate baron added that the drubbing handed to pro-Russian parties demonstrated "strong and irreversible backing to Ukraine's path to Europe".

But the near-euphoria in Poroshenko's circles seemed to overlook the strong preference by Russian oil- and gas-dependent EU nations not to upset Moscow any further.

Some European capitals have even implied that direct membership talks with Kiev were premature - a view that folds into the Kremlin's broader vision of Ukraine as part of its historic domain.

Then there is Poroshenko's near-impotence on the ground. The Ukrainian leader has been able to do little but express outrage at plans by the well-armed and confident separatist fighters to stage their own leadership polls next Sunday.

"Poroshenko and his government will have a difficult time resolving the task of moving into Europe," said Yuriy Romanenko of Kiev's Stratagema political research group. "The war will also go on for a long time. The standoff there could continue for several years," the Ukrainian analyst said.

APPEASING THE GUNMEN

Germany's Berenberg Bank economist Christian Schulz said Poroshenko's new government would have to start by "negotiating potentially unpopular compromises with the separatists" that gave them a substantial enough reason to lay down their guns.

Schulz said the poor performance by radical Ukrainian nationalists worked in Poroshenko's favour. But he also pointed to Russia's ambiguous stance and the fear of it fomenting a "frozen conflict" in the vital industrial east that keeps Ukraine impoverished and destabilised for the foreseeable future.

"Moscow has said it will accept (the parliamentary) election results - but also election results in the separatist areas of Donetsk and Lugansk on Nov 2," the German economist cautioned.

The Capital Economic consultancy in London added that the Russian-speaking insurgency leaders were not going to take kindly to the parliamentary election's support for the shift toward Europe sought principally by their bitter rivals in the Ukrainian-speaking west. "The election of pro-Western politicians is unlikely to appease rebels in the east of the country," Capital Economic said.

CONVINCING THE EU

Poroshenko may have as difficult a time convincing EU leaders. Many took turns on Monday to promise to work with his new team. But top officials in Kiev have grumbled in private that they have so far failed to turn their words into action that keeps Kiev out of Moscow's reach.

Ukraine this year signed an historic pact on closer relations with the EU. It was the abrupt rejection of that pact by the then Russian-backed president last year that led to his ouster and sparked the current crisis.

But western European governments - with economies stuck in or near recession - are already concerned about the political impact of workers from the poorer east moving freely into their shrinking job markets.

Ukraine further has developed a track record of failing to honour commitments to shackle a corruption problem that has made barren state budgets dependent on foreign lending and left governments here unable to plan long-term.

Poroshenko has promised to wean the public off Soviet-era subsidies and encourage competition between private firms that could introduce Ukraine to Western standards and ready it for EU membership.

Capital Economic said with a note of optimism that "with a parliamentary majority in place, Ukraine's reformers will have the green light to continue tackling issues such as reducing energy subsidies and moving toward inflation-targeting monetary policy."

But other analysts said Ukrainian governments and parliaments have disappointed foreign investors for too long for them to be trusted. "Whether or not Ukraine manages to break away from the historically poor track record in delivering in economic policies and wider reforms still remains an open question," Moscow's VTB Capital investment bank said.

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AFP

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