Special edition  » The climate for change

“I am very worried about the weather changing in the last two years. The wind is heavier on the sea and there have been more storms.”

Vietnam is one of the most vulnerable countries in the world to climate change, despite being one of the least responsible for greenhouse gas emissions. This is particularly worrying, as Vietnam has enjoyed one of the best development records in recent years of any country in the world.

It is on track to meet most of its Millennium Development Goals by 2015 and has reduced its poverty rate from about 58 per cent of the population in 1993 to approximately 15 per cent now. Vietnam’s impressive achievements in pulling millions of people out of poverty could be jeopardised by the likely increase in extreme rainfall and drought, unpredictable disasters, and by slow changes like rising sea levels and warming temperatures.

Rice harvests could decline due to climate change

Poor men and women in many communities in Vietnam are already having to cope with the changing climate. People who Oxfam talked to in Ben Tre, Ninh Thuan and Quang Tri provinces revealed the widespread perception from ordinary villagers that the climate was already changing, particularly in its unpredictability compared to 20 or 30 years ago and its extremes.

They report typhoons, unpredictable weather, the threat of salt water intrusion from rising sea levels, and unpredictable and concentrated rainfall causing more flooding than usual or flooding at unusual times of the year. Thus these extreme weather events have caused significant damage to livelihoods, incomes and the daily life of local communities.

Vo Viet Gia, aged 39 years, lives with his wife and five sons in the coastal village of My Thuy, Hai An commune, Hai Lang district of Quang Tri province. His main occupation is working as a fisherman’s mate on a boat owned by another villager.

“I am very worried about the weather changing in the last two years. The wind is heavier on the sea and there have been more storms. Normally the storms start in September or October, but recently we have had storms in March and April. We have not been able to go out fishing as much in the last two years because of the weather. The cold period [last year] was the worst I can remember in my life. We can’t fish when it is so cold. I lost about 20 days’ work in April. I had to work more as a porter and a labourer, and the income is less. Normally we have to borrow money from relatives to survive. I am VND4 million ($250) in debt at the moment.”

Nationally, there was a temperature rise of 0.1 degrees celsius per decade between 1931 and 2000 and of between 0.4 and 0.8 degrees celsius in the country’s three main cities from 1991 to 2000. Wide regional variations in rainfall have been recorded, but the annual volume has remained largely stable.

However, the localised intensity and unpredictability of the rainfall has increased, causing severe floods. There have been more droughts in the south in recent years, which have tended to last longer. The sea level has risen between 2.5 to 3.0 centimetres per decade in the last 50 years, but with regional variations. Typhoons have reduced in total number in the last four decades, but they have become more intense and are tracking southwards. El Nino and La Nina weather events have become more intense in the last 50 years, causing more typhoons, floods and droughts.

All these trends look set to continue and intensify. Poorer men and women find it more and more difficult to recover and adapt as they have much less capacity than better-resourced families.

In many villages women are hit the hardest by natural disasters. They often cannot swim, have fewer assets to turn to for alternative livelihoods when crops are destroyed and have fewer employment opportunities away from the home.

Work load increases significantly for women immediately before and after disaster events due to the nature of the tasks that women undertake, and the fact that they generally must expend more energy and deal with the disasters over a longer time. This will become an even bigger burden for women and girls in the future if the number of such events increases due to climate change impacts.

But Oxfam’s studies show that disaster risk reduction works save lives and livelihoods. Villagers in Quang Tri have shown that getting involved in local level disaster risk management programmes can significantly reduce their vulnerability to frequent or heavy flooding.

Work by Oxfam to help poor communities such as those in Quang Tri adapt to climate change is already underway. Some farmers are using drought-resistant crops, lifeboats have been provided in some areas and people have been taught how to swim. Wooden platforms have also been installed in homes for people to escape flood levels and store food away from the rising water.

Vietnam is able to build on a long history of strong institutional responses to natural disasters like floods and storms. However, these strategies have generally focused on emergency responses to short-term climate extremes and reconstruction after them, rather than long-term adaptation to future climate change.

They are also not yet integrated into wider policies for sustainable rural development and poverty reduction. However, the financing challenge is huge for a developing country like Vietnam. The government has set aside $750 million for protection and building of dykes between 2010 and 2020. But this figure does not take into account the impacts of climate change, which will require far more funding.

A UN report concluded that the extra money needed to adapt to climate change in poor countries is beyond the capacity of most national governments. Outside funding assistance is required in Vietnam and Oxfam believes it is rich countries, who are most responsible for climate change, that should lead the way in committing to such adaptation funding.

The international community will have to play a major role in supporting the Vietnamese government’s efforts to adapt to climate change, because the amounts of investment needed are beyond its budgetary capacity. In 2000 Vietnam was responsible for just 0.35 per cent of world greenhouse gas emissions, one of the lowest percentages in the world.

Developed countries most responsible for climate change have the responsibility, and capability, to act. International adaptation finance will be needed to enable a wide range of measures, from community-led initiatives and disaster risk reduction strategies to long-term national planning and social protection in the face of unavoidable impacts.