Special edition  » The climate for change

Recently, typhoon Ketsana hit Southeast Asia very hard. It caused the worst flooding in the Philippines in 40 years and then continued its deadly path across the region, causing serious flooding and loss of life in Vietnam and Cambodia.

The death toll was over 300 people and more than a million people needed assistance. Shortly after that, typhoon Mirinae came and again led to a death toll of more than 160 people in Vietnam. These events show how Vietnam is vulnerable to weather impacts that will probably become more frequent and intense with climate change.

Mark Kent

A recent report by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) found that sea levels in the region have risen and droughts, floods and tropical cyclones have become more intense and frequent. But the worst is yet to come. By 2100, the ADB forecasts that temperatures could rise by 4.8 degrees celsius and the sea level could rise by 70 centimetres - which could flood large parts of the Mekong Delta.

Economically, Southeast Asia will likely suffer greatly with a predicted loss of 6.7 per cent of combined gross domestic product (GDP) each year by 2100 - more than twice the global average. Rice yields could decrease by up to 50 per cent by 2100, which could be disastrous for a country like Vietnam.

The effects of climate change are being felt all around the world. A recent report by the Global Humanitarian Forum, led by Kofi Annan, suggested that 325 million people are already seriously affected by drought, disease, floods, loss of livestock and declining agricultural and fisheries yields. A further 500 million people are at extreme risk. The report estimated that every year the effects of climate change were killing 300,000 people.

Ironically, those being hit first and hardest by climate change are those who have done the least to cause it. As the British Foreign Secretary David Miliband pointed out: “Some of the countries that have been the most responsible for the rise in emissions and the dangers of climate change are least vulnerable to the effects of climate change and some of those countries who have contributed least to change in climate nonetheless stand to suffer the most”. So there is a need for coordinated policies to adapt to the impacts of climate change. Worldwide, the problem will not be tackled unless greenhouse gas emissions can be reduced.

Developed countries should rightly make the bulk of any emission reductions. However developing countries, including those in Southeast Asia, can also help. This region has great mitigation potential. The forestry sector is the largest contributor to regional emission reductions and there are many cost-effective measures that can be implemented, including reforestation, reducing deforestation and improving forest management. I am pleased that here in Vietnam, the five million hectare reforestation programme is making good progress and I hope that the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development will continue to further promote the issue.

The ADB report found that in the Southeast Asia energy sector, 40 per cent of emissions could be reduced at negative-cost – that is, by producing cost savings. Another 40 per cent could be mitigated at less than 1 per cent of GDP. This highlights an important point that action taken to reduce energy use and greenhouse gas emissions can have clear financial benefits through reduced energy bills and operating costs. Vietnam has done good work in implementing the National Programme on Energy Efficiency, which is a good example of cost cutting while at the same time reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Such “small little things”, when combined, can lead to much bigger results than anyone could imagine.

As the world moves forward, there will be a greater demand for green goods and services that produce few carbon emissions. International experts already acknowledge that “green investment” programmes can shore up the economy, create jobs and reduce poverty. There will also be a greater demand for carbon credits generated through projects that invest in clean energy – often through the UN’s Clean Development Mechanism.

There are many opportunities for those countries and companies that move quickest in this area. The current economic crisis provides an opportunity for countries in the region, including Vietnam, to start the transition to a low-carbon economy.

But we need these actions to be supported by a strong international framework. That is why the climate change talks in Copenhagen in December are so important. Our Prime Minister Gordon Brown recently said: “In every era, there are only one or two moments when nations come together and reach agreements that make history - because they change the course of history. Copenhagen must be such a time“.

So we have to be ambitious in our goals for the Copenhagen outcomes. We want to see an agreement that supports stabilising the climate at two degrees, emissions peaking between 2015 and 2020, with action from all countries and a 50 per cent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.

This means binding economy wide caps in the mid-term for developed countries. It means nationally appropriate mitigation actions for developing ones. It also means technological cooperation, including specific action plans in areas like solar power and carbon capture and storage.

An important part of the equation is making progress on financing. Money is needed to help pay for developing countries to reduce emissions using greener technology, to avoid deforestation and to adapt to climate change.

The UK has put forward a package of proposals in this area – suggesting that $100 billion a year in public and private funding will be needed for developing countries by 2020. We believe that there should be predictability in this financing; that it should be additional to Official Development Assistance, and that governance should be shared amongst developed and developing countries.

The UK believes that the global carbon market should be expanded to deliver a significant proportion of this money. And most countries should contribute, based on ability to pay and emissions, although the poorest countries should be exempted.

The UK believes that an agreement at Copenhagen is possible. But it is clear that real political leadership will be required in order to get a deal. It will also be important that those countries most affected by climate chang - such as Vietnam, make their voice heard in the negotiations. It was excellent that Vietnam attended the recent high level forum of Most Vulnerable Countries in the Maldives. We firmly believe that Copenhagen needs to achieve a fair and equitable outcome, which means directing resources to where they are needed the most.

At Copenhagen, we all need to agree an ambitious plan to tackle climate change, written by all countries and in which everyone takes part. This will be one of the greatest diplomatic challenges of our time, as important as any peace treaty. It involves all of us. But, it is a challenge we cannot shirk.