Special edition  » The climate for change

The World Bank has just issued the 2010 World Development Report (WDR), which this year is titled Development and Climate Change.

This, which is the central theme proposed in the annual flagship report of the world’s leading development organisation, is a reflection that at every level climate change considerations impact on the development process must be taken into account. The WDR urges us to “Act Now, Act Together, Act Differently”.

The development challenges of climate change are more or less significant in each country and in each sector. The bank considers that the likely negative impacts of climate change place Vietnam among the countries where this is of most concern for the national growth and development.

If it is a certainty that we need to do something, it is also true that the world has never faced such an urgent challenge for which so much uncertainty reigns.

There is increasing scientific consensus around predictions of what will happen to the world’s climate over the next 100 years. But, we are dealing with very complex systems and changes and there is a small chance that they could be far more rapid and catastrophic than predicted at this time.

What needs to be done to mitigate or reduce emissions is well known, but how to achieve the needed transformations of our economies and lifestyles is challenging. What needs to be done to adapt to climate change is even more problematic. Making the right investment decisions now requires detailed knowledge of the timing and nature of future climate changes which we simply do not have at this time.

Now

The unanswered questions and uncertainties are daunting but let us be clear, the stakes are too important to adopt any strategy other than acting now. The bank has elevated climate change issues to among the most important development considerations for our work in Vietnam. In terms of the “now”, the World Bank is focusing on three areas.

Firstly, although much has been done in Vietnam, we continue to increase our support for further high-quality analytical work in Vietnam on predicting changes, developing adaptation measures and understanding how adaptation can be made a reality. This is particularly true for understanding the economic stakes for the government to make the best possible decisions at the right times.

Secondly, many questions remain to be answered about how to adapt. For example, to confront sea level rises in the Mekong Delta, is the solution dykes, mangroves or adaptive agricultural practices? Where, when and how? However, there are just as many other areas where we can be more sure about what is needed.

These include measures needed to increase resilience to natural disasters and for better climate-proofing of urban infrastructure. We can invest in these now and the bank already has a $500 million programme about moving forward in these and related areas of adaptation. The bank’s adaptation work will focus on natural disaster risk mitigation, on the Mekong Delta, on sustainable natural resources and on adaptation in urban environments.

Thirdly, mitigation of climate change refers to reduction of greenhouse gas emissions or sequestration of excess atmospheric carbon. In common with emerging positions of other major developing countries, Vietnam needs to commit to a lower carbon growth path. The Kyoto Protocol’s “common but differentiated responsibility” still implies a responsibility to act, unless such action seriously compromises the development process.

Furthermore, the bank contends that a lower carbon trajectory in Vietnam does not need to constrain development, but support it through the ancillary economic and environmental benefits that can be reaped. Thus the bank continues to prioritise reduced emissions in energy, transport and rural portfolios. Projects now moving forward are investing hundreds of millions of dollars in these areas. The bank is committed to working with the government on a larger-scale, lower carbon growth strategy.

Together

WDR’s second central message is that the world needs to act together. This is particularly true when thinking of the need for globally high-emitting countries to do their part to reduce carbon emissions and to work with low-emitting countries to reduce the development impacts of climate change. Making this a reality ultimately requires a transfer of resources on a massive scale from rich to poor countries. The World Bank plays this role already.

For example, we manage the $5 billion Clean Technology Fund, with Vietnam expected to receive several hundred million dollars of highly concessional credit from this source. Depending on results at Copenhagen, it is likely the bank will play an even greater role in the emerging global financial architecture that will need to underpin “acting together”.

Within Vietnam, it is just as true that different stakeholders need to act together to optimise resources and minimise waste and poor decisions. These stakeholders include the central government, ministries, provinces, cities, communities, donors and NGOs. A strong role of the Vietnamese government is needed to ensure this happens and the National Target Programme to Respond to Climate Change on the adaptation to climate change is certainly a positive development. The bank will support, in every way possible, the needed partnerships within Vietnam.

And Differently

The WDR proposes two somewhat conflicting messages. On the one hand, a lot of what is needed for responding to climate change is “development as usual”. Certainly some specific actions and measures are needed but the best defences against climate change are wealthier, more developed economies and societies. The bank’s central work on climate change remains global poverty reduction efforts.

On the other hand, development cannot just be development as usual. New development paradigms must work over the next decade. This means working with our client countries to adopt lower carbon development pathways. Lower carbon emissions are possible in energy generation, transmission and use in cities, in transport and in forestry.

These transformations will be difficult. The World Bank will be part of efforts to develop differently - in our support to the Vietnamese government, in the design of projects and in undertaking analytical work to bring solutions to bear - now, together and differently.