Special edition  » Green development

Fast-industrialising Vietnam is seeking ways to mitigate its CO2 emissions to build a low-carbon economy to cope with looming climate change aftermaths.

After more than two decades of successfully exercising its doi moi policy, Vietnam has reaped big achievements which have lifted the country out of a low-development status.

Since 1990, Vietnam’s economy has annually grown by an average 7.56 per cent.

Vietnam is pursuing its economic modernisation with the aim of becoming a major regional player. According to the Ministry of Construction, the economic development has also resulted in speedy urbanisation, with the country currently having 730 urban areas, whose population has grown from 12 million people in 1986 to 23 million now.

Urban areas’ consumption of energy, particularly electricity, has risen and is responsible for 48-50 per cent of Vietnam’s total consumed electricity.

The Ministry of Planning and Investment (MPI) reported that over the past 20 years, Vietnam’s consumption of primary energies such as fossil fuels, natural gas wind and solar energy had increased by 2.56 times. The country’s consumption of secondary energies such as electricity and refined fuels has grown 2.43 times and consumption of electricity has augmented by 10.7 times.

Oliver Jacquet, representative of Vietnam-based Schneider Electric, said over the past five years, Vietnam’s annual average electricity consumption had grown by over 15 per cent, while electricity production had risen by 13 per cent.

“The country’s increasing consumption of energy means that it has been emitting more and more CO_2, one of the major factors that have warmed up the earth and cause climate change,” Jacquet said.

The MPI said that Vietnam has been warned by the international community of more adverse impacts of the climate change, which could cost the country 6.7 per cent of its gross domestic product by 2100, twice the world’s average loss. Sea level rises, caused by global ice melting, could result in a loss of 12.2 per cent of Vietnam’s area and threaten the living areas of 17 million people.

“Therefore, Vietnam needs to find economic growth models that not only continue growing, but also help mitigate the adverse impacts of climate change. Low-carbon growth will be an option for the country’s economic development, as Vietnam can mitigate up to 40 per cent of its combined energy-related CO₂ emissions per year by 2020,” said MPI deputy minister Nguyen Bich Dat.

Two sides of the same coin

At a recent international consultation workshop on the economics of low carbon climate resilient growth in Vietnam, Dat said that Vietnam was in preparation for its 10-year 2011-2020 socio-economic development strategy and the five-year 2011-2015 socio-economic development plan.

“This is an appropriate point of time for Vietnam to select the low-carbon growth model because the country needs to both develop its economy stably and join the international community’s common fight against climate change,” said Nguyen Van Duc, deputy minister of Natural Resources and Environment.

According to the MPI, fast-industrialising Vietnam’s economy is small-scaled, so its CO₂ emissions remain low. In 2006, the country’s CO₂ emissions were equal to 0.35 per cent of the world’s total emissions, 0.92 per cent of Asia, 1.85 per cent of US and 1.7 per cent of China.

The ADETEF Vietnam, a non-governmental organisation, reported that at present, Vietnam’s per capita CO₂ emissions were 1.4 tonnes per year, while the figure is six tonnes in France, 10 tonnes in Germany and 20 tonnes in the US.

The organisation said Vietnam was not responsible for global warming and its current priorities were to develop a low-carbon economy with strong and stable growth, while finding ways to cope with climate change caused by developed countries.

However, many local and foreign experts have warned that Vietnam’s speedy urbanisation and industrialisation could slow down its efforts to build a low-carbon economy with sustainable development, due to the country’s increasingly ineffective consumption of traditional energy via backward technologies.

A Ministry of Industry and Trade report said Vietnam’s energy usage effectiveness remained 2.4-3.6 times lower than in many regional countries. For example, in almost country-based buildings, the average electricity consumption per one square metre of their floors was 30-50 per cent higher than the same buildings in many Asian countries that were applied with energy saving measures.

The country’s almost technologies for exploiting, transforming and using energy remained backward, with many produced in the 1970s and 1980s.

As a result, Dat said: “Vietnam’s CO₂ emissions have increased five times between 1990-2006.”

For example, the country’s coal consumption increased from 7.82 million tonnes in 1995 to 45.84 million tonnes in 2006, a 17.4 per cent increase per year.

The Vietnam-based United Nations said in a report that Vietnam’s 2009 census estimated a total population of 85.8 million. Currently, the ratio of working-age people to dependents was high, and it was estimated that this situation would last for the next 30 years and then level off.

“Vietnam is. Therefore, likely to experience rapid consumption growth and associated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions growth in the coming years and decades,” said Koos Neefjes, a United Nations climate change expert.

“Vietnam has not contributed significantly to the historical build-up of atmospheric GHG that are causing global climate change, and per capita emissions are not yet comparable to those of rich countries. However, Vietnam is now adding to the cause of global climate change with steadily increasing emissions,” said Neefjes.

It was estimated that the country’s total emissions would more than double over the period 2000-2020, especially emissions from the energy sector due to energy consumption and power production.

“If the country fails to pay attention to controlling greenhouse gas emissions, its per capita _CO2 emission may increase to 7.7 tonnes of per year by 2040 and 10 tonnes by 2050, which is equivalent to 1,300 million tonnes of CO₂ per year,” said Henri Prévot, an ADETEF Vietnam advisor.

Pham Chi Lan, senior economist and former member of the Prime Ministerial Research Committee said Vietnam’s economic growth remained unstable as it used far more energy than other countries.

“The growth has led to serious exploitation of the country’s natural resources and destroyed environment. Pursuit of a low-carbon economy will be a good input for the country’s new socio-economic development strategy. We need to action immediately before being stressed by bigger aftermaths,” Lan said.

Taking actions

To join the world’s efforts in controlling greenhouse gas emissions GHG emissions and build a low-carbon economy to cope with climate change, Vietnam has revised its energy policies to effectively use and save energy, as well as attract more and more project using clean energy.

“In the coming time, Vietnam’s new energy development strategy will focus on developing small-scaled hydroelectricity plants, wind-electricity plants, projects using rubbish and agricultural by-products to make electricity and solar-powered projects,” said

Deputy Prime Minister Hoang Trung Hai in late last year’s Vietnam-France Economic and Financial Forum on “Energy and Sustainable Development”.

“Vietnam should pursue ‘win-win’ GHG emissions mitigation actions where possible, meaning initiatives that promote socio-economic development and GHG emissions mitigation simultaneously. These efforts would receive at least some financial and technical support from developed countries,” said a UN latest report on Vietnam and climate change.

“With the right domestic policies, good international relations and political will on all sides, global and national efforts to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions can become a development opportunity for Vietnam, including its business, forest managers, and citizens,” it stated.

An Asia Development Bank study said there were “win-win” mitigation options in Vietnam’s energy sector. More efficient power plants, more energy efficient lighting, appliances and industrial equipment, and efficient transmission could allow Vietnam to mitigate carbon emissions up to 40 per cent by 2020 at a negative net cost.

“Vietnam has much to gain and nothing to lose by investing in these low-cost and no-cost adaptation and mitigation measures,” said Ayumi Konishi, the bank’s country director for Vietnam.

A draft version of the Law on Energy Efficiency and Conservation, which is under consideration, is expected to be passed by the 12^th National Assembly’s seventh session to take place between May, 20 and the end of June, 2010.

The law regulates the use of energy and makes all individuals and organisations aware of the need to contribute to environmental protection in order to ensure sustainable development. It also specifies what activities should be encouraged and what activities are compulsory to ensure energy conservation.